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  • #76
    Good ole Fuller. I just didn't want to pay the $3M per.


    Champions behave like champions before they are champions - Bill Walsh

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    • #77
      Me neither!

      He & Cutting are both reaaaaaaally borderline players. The kind of 30/30 guys who sometimes put together decent stats. Not bad for a stop-gap or if you really need it. Though I wonder if he wasn't a part of the reason for our poor pass defense anyway this year.
      But I am le tired .

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Aston View Post
        2039 review of 2038 results
        Ticket Revenue $319.8 (2038) from $244.25 (2037) (+30%)
        Suite Revenue $168.77 (2038) from $171.19 (2037) (-1%)
        Attendance: 93.7 (2038) from 99.3 (2037)

        CONCLUSIONS: Ticket price raises were very beneficial (probably PRIMARILY in significant club seat price raise) Suite price was raised too much. 175K was maybe too low; 250K too high, but not killer.

        2039 Ticket Plans
        39 Incumbent
        $140
        $180
        $215
        $330
        $1000
        $250K


        39 Rex
        $136
        $181
        $220
        $323
        $946
        $189K

        39 Actual
        $140 (+0)
        $185 (+5)
        $225 (+10)
        $335 (+5)
        $1000 (+0)
        $214K (-36K)
        2040 review of 2039 results
        Ticket Revenue $282.90 (2039) from $319.81 (2038) (-11%)
        Suite Revenue $211.73 (2039) from $168.77 (2038) (+25%)
        Attendance: 98.4% (2039) from 93.7% (2038) (+5%)

        CONCLUSIONS: ?? Higher attendance but lower ticket revenue. Wonder why. Perhaps non-luxury increases were too much and the attendance is being made up exclusively from suites? Box score shows perfect non-luxury attendance, though.

        2040 Ticket Plans
        39 Incumbent
        $140
        $185
        $225
        $335
        $1000
        $214K

        40 Rex
        $140
        $187
        $227
        $331
        $994
        $198K

        40 Actual
        $140 (+0)
        $187 (+2)
        $227 (+2)
        $331 (-4)
        $1000 (+0)
        $214K (+0)

        Being conservative with changes this year. I know I will have to replace my DC next season -- he's 65 and I didn't extend him.
        But I am le tired .

        Comment


        • #79
          2040 Rookie Draft

          1.27 DT Eduardo Hayes 32/46

          I hope he'll pop significantly in camp. GBY scouts felt he was VU, and I'm definitely getting that vibe with these static bars and his 47 full red endurance (his corresponding draft bar showed in the 20s there). The question is really going to be where those Run Def, PRT, and play diag bars land. We passed up TEN's OLB Kenneth Ramsey here, and it wasn't so we could draft a DT under 65 OVR.


          3.14 ILB Cameron Herdeg 18/48

          After passing on Ramsey in round 1, we shied away from solid-looking players over whom Stelmagic was gushing in TEN's Frank Dawkins and PHI's Caden Buckley, in favor of one I liked but Stelmagic didn't. The need at LB (short and long term) was strong enough that I ended up spending a 2nd on Herdeg anyway, so this is a real match of wits, Aston v Stel. So a lot is riding on this pick. Herdeg will move out to SLB, since that's where we need him. Like Dawkins and Buckley, he offers solid STs.

          4.12 FB Howard Falcone 29/48

          We were hot after DE Walter Francis, but San Diego swooped him up at the bottom of the 3rd. With our options starting to evaporate, we decided to make sure we landed our next target by moving up in the 4th round. Falcone's bright crimson 7.18 agility caught our eye, and at 6'3-257, he's perfect to move to TE. He doesn't have much big play ability unfortunately, but he'll be a very strong candidate to start as a rookie.

          5.12 DE Everett Ellard 18/37

          The rest of the 4th round was not kind to Aston's draft board. I had been thinking maybe a rookie kicker and was pretty high on Ike Pepper, but Minnesota got to him at 4.20. With no trade options in sight, I tried to make a safe pick that would have a spot to play and would be solid enough. Ellard was a high grade DE with some competitive combines and bars, and should provide adequate depth.

          5.14 QB Jerome Barnes 6/33

          Barnes was our top target in the 5th round after we interviewed him and he came back with 17 intel to 30 sole (we suspected it could be so, as he only knew 7 formations). We went DE first because he seemed riskier to expose. Man, Barnes really excites me. We missed last year with a 95-pos drill superstar in the 7th round, but I like Barnes' chances better. At the very least he'll take over kick holding duties from the unspectacular Jay Howard.

          5.27 S Wayne Marchese 10/34

          Not a fan of this pick, but I really wanted a rookie safety and Marchese had a decent mix of bars and combines. I went with him because he showed some return ability, too, which won't hurt his roster chances.

          7.01 RB James Hatcher 29/39

          REALLY excited about this one. I was going back and forth between him and S Dakota Hardy (DEN) and in the end, felt I should avoid double-dipping. Hatcher's static bars are as good as I could have hoped for, at 45-42-41. In recent years, we've had a 7th round trifecta at RB, with 7.32 Derrick Roundtree, 7.32 Neil Hatcher, and 7.14 Landen Maynard carrying a respectable run game that's finished 10th, 11th, and 18th in the league. Hatcher will now be called upon to continue that pipeline of minimally paid RBs.

          Overall
          7 picks -- a good number, normally a little low perhaps (we like 8), but we added enough middle class depth in free agency that this was perfect for us. 4 defense, 3 offense, with one quarterback and two playmakers.

          Only S Marchese and QB Barnes don't get past injustices upon being released. Marchese looks like the worst pick and would add 270k to our 41 cap penalty if he doesn't make the team. Hatcher, if he follows in Maynard's footsteps and eventually becomes the starting RB, could be the best value.

          This roster is springing more leaks than we have the resources to plug at once, so getting some oomph out of these rookie draft classes is crucial. I think this is the best draft I've had since I've been back. Not exactly real high standards, lol (38 was a special disaster). We managed to stay patient (mostly) and avoid double-dipping, and most importantly landed a whole set of nice-looking contributors.

          Eduardo Hayes is the first Packers 1st round selection since the disastrous 1.28 WR Orlando Fore in 2036. He and 1.32 MLB Raymond Hanson (2035) were consecutive round 1 busts for Green Bay, and we made penance with the VSOD gods by going 2037, 2038, and 2039 without picking in the first.
          But I am le tired .

          Comment


          • #80
            See, Aston? This is what I was talking about in another thread... static bars are a big deal to everyone, but they rarely translate to all the other bars jumping.
            Philadelphia Eagles GM, 2036-

            Comment


            • #81
              Wow, we move fast. Is it the 2041 draft already?

              2041 Rookie Draft

              1.28 DT Al Tucker 27/54
              I was less than pleased with my round 1 options this year. At this time, we had a big question mark at one spot on the DL, and no options in free agency forthcoming -- so I tried to fill out the line with 4-for-4 starting options. The plan is to move (or play) a surplus DT at DE to cover up the hole by the vacated Norman Burroughs. (Burroughs ended up returning to the team, though, in LFA)

              1.32 S Riddick Blake 27/52
              We picked a bad year to pick twice in the first round. This draft seemed the least deep in recent memory, although the top half of the round was nice. GB had an early 2nd round pick, but when it came to the first round bonus money, I had to lock in on a position I was really sure about. With our incredibly aging secondary, we needed a big shot in the arm for the young guys. S Cline, CB Rogers, CB Gerhardt -- these guys are all at the end of the line. They could all be gone as soon as next year.

              Blake was no-combine, and I'm not hoping for a wunderkind here, but he seems like someone who can hold the fort steady at his position. That was enough for me, given the importance of taking care of this position group.

              2.9 WR C.J. Alcott 25/46
              Our other option at 1.32 was this nice center that I feel like Irish or Hammer probably took. He made it down to 2.9, which I would've thought would make me pounce -- but I went with need again. We really only have Hastings locked up at WR in Green Bay, and with the turn Stancil took at the end of last year after some WR injuries, that was worrisome. Alcott doesn't look great, but he looks *solid* -- so we again go for the low bar and the need. We're relatively okay with most of the line spots for now, and honestly, WR has proved quite difficult to land in the draft or in FA by comparison. So, I felt a high 2nd round pick was a small price to pay for a 40ish rated steady contributor. I hope he'll have RR, too -- as our other young receivers, Hastings and Schwartz, do not.

              This pick took on added importance with late free agency, when our top WR, the stalwart but 9th-year Eugene Harvey, held out for huge money. I'm trying to find a way I could see him fitting back into our plans, but we'd have to upgrade him to ~$12M now (from ~6M), as well as for the next two years, with substantial bonus. It'd be one thing if we knew he could hold at 54/54, but he might not even come out of training camp this year above 45/45 -- much less next year.

              2.22 CB Michael Blaine 25/35
              I got caught (and likely burned) combine-gazing here. A 6.0 graded corner with a lot of good (but not definitive one way or another) combines? The bars were a concern, but with the grade and the combines, I gambled that he was the kind of player who might rise up and be pretty solid. Unfortunately, he doesn't even get past injustices.

              I had another CB on the radar and maybe I should have gone with him. However, I was completely unable to turn away from CB here, see: aforementioned needs. The problem is, when you strike out...you end up with the same hole the next year, and now you've gone and burned that draft pick on nothing, so you might have a hole somewhere else, too. That's cool, though. Mistakes like these are things NFL teams deal with. /#thingsIliketotellmyself

              3.32 DT Caden Thompson 26/36
              So, I really could not help myself from taking another DL. This was again a nod to our hole at DE -- which I didn't know would be filled by Norman Burroughs -- but with a late 3rd round pick, that doesn't change the decision calculus. Bleeck is not so young; Alston's contract makes him expendable soon and he's not young either. Last year, we drafted a DE (Ellard) in the 5th that looks capable, but better as depth than starting. With Thompson, we hope to add another depth player, and perhaps one with better pass rush ability, to the DE ranks. Our 1st round pick can't move to DE very well, but Thompson is at much closer weight. That was part of the draw. He gets past injustices, so I am happy -- whenever you draft a player, and he's worthy of not being cut right away, hey, that's a win for me these days.

              4.13 OLB Dillon Zappa 23/36
              Somewhere between 3.32 and 4.13, I apparently ran out of almost all my options. I think at this point I was looking at the stopgap OT San Fran took, and maybe a few other guys. LB was also a position of some urgent need, so I went with a guy that I thought maybe had a chance to address those needs. Unfortunately, it looks like I missed. A miss like this makes me appreciate a non-miss like the 3.32 DT that much more. In these rounds, it's never guaranteed that I even end up with a draftable player.

              5.32 OT Abraham Rice 18/44

              7.4 OG Marlon Kennedy 18/27

              7.12 C Marvin Mason 17/44

              With something like 6 OL on the roster at the time, I went and stocked up at the position, hoping to make a few solid investments on the line. Thanks to the low numbers, these guys have a solid chance at making the team, which definitely made them all the more appealing. And there's something poetic (or maybe stupid?) about going T-G-C all in a row to close out the draft.

              When the dust had settled, I just hoped that one of them would come back solid, and I had a feeling it might be the last one. Early indications suggest that's exactly the case.

              Rice was kind of like our 2nd-round CB: a high ranked player with solid enough combines that you think, just maybe a solid player has slipped through the cracks. Another comparison would be last year's 5th round DE Ellard, who did end up being solid. Rice doesn't look that good, but not every guy who doesn't get past injustices is totally useless, either: our recent 6th round guard, J.R. Stanton, for example, ended up close to 40/40. He was called on to start for us and proved to be a decent depth option at the time. Maybe that's Rice's future -- if so, that's still a win.

              Kennedy was a no-combine, no interview player with a very low grade. Very boom/bust type selection. No clue which way it would go. Now it looks like the answer is "bust". That's okay.

              Mason was the last of the centers; I had hoped for others before. Bomber took one of them, and I think Yoda took the other one. However, that didn't prove so bad when I still found a center to take with my final pick in the 7th, and this is the only one of the bunch with past injustices.
              But I am le tired .

              Comment


              • #82
                Kicker Battle

                Thanks to the power of R, I'm able to dig into my kickers' kickoff stats (their FG stats are readily visible) and offer up a bit of comparison.

                This season, the 66/66 Arnie Griffith battles the incumbent 54/54 Les Henry. ge = greater than equal to; le = less than equal to

                Arnie Griffith -- 2040 -- 2035-40
                Code:
                count: 71            267
                mean:  65            65
                sd:    9.03          8.42
                ge60:  50 (70.4%)    189 (70.8%)
                ge65:  41 (57.7%)    151 (56.6%)
                le55:  13 (18.3%)    45 (16.9%)
                le50:  7 (9.9%)      14 (5.2%)
                Les Henry -- 2040 -- 2039-40 -- 2035-40
                Code:
                count: 103             224            433
                mean:  68.2            68.2           68.5
                sd:    6.7             6.38           6.08
                ge60:  90 (87.4%)      199 (88.8%)    390 (90.1%)
                ge65:  71 (74.8%)      165 (73.7%)    330 (76.2%)
                le55:  7 (6.8%)        13 (5.8%)      22 (5.08%)
                le50:  3 (2.9%)        4 (1.8%)       4 (0.9%)
                Griffith has a significant edge in OVR, but this is a really poor track record (or in comparison, Henry's is extraordinary). With two preseason games each, they appear to have stuck pretty closely to their remarkably consistent recent career numbers.
                Last edited by Aston; 08-04-2015, 02:07.
                But I am le tired .

                Comment


                • #83
                  What is the power of R? I wants that power, Precious

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    R is a programming language frequently used in statistical computing.

                    Here's my code. Kind of quick and dirty, and a real memory hog (would like to avoid that, but not sure how):

                    https://github.com/am217/fof-getkickoffs/
                    But I am le tired .

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      2042 Draft/Offseason

                      I'm happy with what we did this draft, but the actual player haul is once again not great. Stormy days ahead, if that continues.

                      The important thing is we've found a young lineman we're happy with -- at tackle, no less. As severe needs keep popping up everywhere on the aging roster, that was important. Doubly so that we managed to luck into him after dropping 11 spots from round 1 to round 2, picking up an extra asset in the process.

                      The rest of the draft was extremely underwhelming, but again we picked up some extra assets on the way. The 2.31 pick netted a 2 and 4 I believe. These are "rainy day" assets we expect to have to rely on soon. I feel less good about what was done with the 2.31 than the 1.31, though: our top target, the no-combine Los Angeles TE, went early in the 3rd, and he looks like a major player. Still, the Packers' own top TE has two years on his contract and we expect him to play it out. Even a nice rookie TE probably doesn't get great impact opportunity.

                      In the third round, our players are average, unextraordinary depth fillers. I'm happy with another young LB to have under contract and play special teams. The DE seems a little superfluous this year, but I didn't know that at the time -- our two major DE FA signings didn't occur until after the pick, and I really did not expect to land Winfred Swift. That was a surprise. Our DEs are not young, though. These 4-year rookie deals may pay dividends.

                      At 4.31 we attempt to make-up passing on a TE earlier. Looks like a total wash, but he could have a roster spot. Everything after that except the kicker looks like a royal miss. Interesting kicker situation here. Some combination of two guys will duke it out in the preseason, and the rookie has as good a shot as any.

                      The late round / free agency pool was underwhelming to us this year, so we did well to avoid making all three 7th rounders. Even if the payoff was likely minimal -- *maybe* a few spots upgraded next year in the 7th round -- it's 80k of cap penalty saved, and that counts for something. Those cap penalties add up and we devote enough of it to trying out free agents already.

                      The big concern heading into the 2042 season is actually a 2041 draft failure. We have big contracts lining up for 2043, starting with a new deal for QB Stancil, and the cap penalty watch is on. In selling out for this year's sole FA prize, we anticipate a significant penalty (near $3M) when the 14th-year center (likely) retires. If near-useless 2nd year CB Michael Blaine can't make the team, that's another near $2M to add to the charge.

                      This underscores the new, scary reality for us: those 2nd round picks, even the late ones, better count. Blaine is the second or third time in recent years we've completely missed on one of these, and already was given a charity roster spot for his rookie year due to cap considerations. Can't keep having that.

                      It'll be a fun ride, looking forward to it.
                      But I am le tired .

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Ugh. Backup Packers QB Bobby Walsh is one of the few players in recent years we've gone out on a limb for in free agency. In a "versus the AI" climate, it's definitely important to shore up your depth and account for injuries. But he was a 43/43 QB when we threw the long-term bonus at him. He dived and is 34/34 cannon fodder now.

                        It figures. The one time you give a guy some cash, it ruins him.

                        On a side note, this is a fun year. "How little playmaking talent can we put around a star QB and still get offense?" We are seeking to answer this now. For science, of course.
                        But I am le tired .

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          2051 Green Bay Draft



                          Kristopher Spruce WR - #12 (41/69)
                          1st rd. 13th Overall
                          Northwestern
                          Post TC (41/69) - PS2 (44/58)
                          Year 2 (57/58)

                          With a move to draft Ezekiel Bauer not coming to fruition, Green Bay goes with Spruce. Race and France are not #1 wide outs anymore. Whomever inherits the job, at quarterback, will have a weapon with Spruce along side Dreyfuss.




                          Glenn Clements DB - #26 (40/53)
                          3rd rd. 75th Overall
                          Baylor
                          Post TC (43/53) - PS2 (46/53)
                          Year 2 (53/53)

                          Clements should provide much needed depth as Noah Scribner will play more safety going forward. Clements will be a valuable nickel back and could push Conrad Price at the RCB position.




                          Drew Batcheck DT - #96 (22/55)
                          5th rd. 142nd Overall
                          Cincinnati
                          Post TC (22/55) - PS2 (28/56)
                          Year 2 (35/55)

                          With Ralph Rochon scheduled to make $13.6M, it's likely he won't be retained much longer, which opens the door for Batcheck to make the roster and potential be in the rotation for quality snaps.




                          Jonah Pritchett QB - #7 (10/38)
                          5th rd. 150th Overall
                          Kansas
                          Post TC (10/38) - PS2 (14/40)
                          Year 2 (14/40)

                          The former Jayhawk won't have to be much as the quarterbacks on the roster aren't very good. No one knows just yet, who will throw passes in Green Bay.




                          Russell Goodson LB - #53 (28/50)
                          6th rd. 173rd Overall
                          Oregon
                          Post TC (28/50) - PS2 (33/50)
                          Year 2 (41/50)

                          Goodson was an auto pick, but with Joey Chalmers holding out, Goodson could be the replacement down the road.




                          Kenyon Weigert DE - #94 (21/47)
                          7th rd. 204th Overall
                          Tulane
                          Post TC (21/47) - PS2 (26/45)
                          Year 2 (26/45)

                          Kendall Goulett was a bust of a free agent signing last season. Weigert could hold as the 53rd man with a decent camp.
                          Last edited by WilleB; 01-08-2018, 16:12.


                          Champions behave like champions before they are champions - Bill Walsh

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Well...We're taking 5 healthy quarterbacks to TC. Hoping they don't all come out looking like the young ones do right now.


                            Champions behave like champions before they are champions - Bill Walsh

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Man, I need to update this. Can't wait. Spruce, Clements, Goodson and Weigert have all paid off.


                              Champions behave like champions before they are champions - Bill Walsh

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